The top emerging risks in 2026 are disinformation, economic tensions and deteriorated health

Companies are undergoing a sustained transformation marked by changes that many would have thought impossible. This is compounded by the re-emergence of crises that were thought to be a thing of the past. The situation is destabilising economic institutions, which are struggling to reassure increasingly mistrustful citizens.

For an insurer, the challenge is considerable: what solutions are available for complex and systemic risks? Understanding the scope of these events is a necessary and responsible effort. Our approach makes perfect sense in this respect.

What is an emerging risk for CNP Assurances?

Emerging risks include:

These risks are difficult to quantify and highly uncertain, which can lead to significant losses. 

Each year, CNP Assurances identifies the risks most likely to materialise in the next ten years. This research is based on:

• intelligence gathering, forecasting and strategic analyses,
• surveys of internal risk specialists,
• dialogue with experts from various disciplines.

As a citizen-focused insurer and a member of the major public financial institution (Grand pôle financier public), we support our customers in the transfer of their risks and contribute to the protection of society.

Improving our understanding of this complexity

There are three key criteria for assessing emerging risks:

This approach makes it possible to prioritise risks and define priorities for action. The research shows all the challenges facing CNP Assurances. It stresses the importance of developing innovative solutions to adapt to an uncertain future. By anticipating risks, we implement appropriate prevention and protection measures, individually and collectively. And by doing so we are making insurance even more accessible.     

2026 trends: key takeaways

Our experts are continuously monitoring emerging risks through forward-looking intelligence gathering. Each year, these risks are classified according to their potential impact and their likelihood of occurrence. For 2026, the overview of identified risks provides a global picture of the challenges that lie ahead.

Risk of deterioration in the economic environment

The increased indebtedness of the French State has severely tested the country’s political stability in one of the key developments of 2025.

The continuation of the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict and US interference illustrate the intensity of persistent international frictions. All of which is clearly undermining the economy. The confirmation of the risk of a deterioration in the economic environment, which comes in second place in our ISAP ranking, therefore comes as no surprise. 

The situation raises fears of instability in the business activity of insurance companies. If economies continue to decline, institutions will weaken and populations become more vulnerable, particularly the most disadvantaged.

The situation is testing the resilience of insurers, obliging them to: 

• strike an ideal balance by means of judicious pricing and reserving strategies, 
• hold up strongly against a potential decrease in subscriptions and an increase in fraudulent claims.

The risk of misinformation, exacerbated by the use of artificial intelligence, has entered the rankings

This development is undermining trust. The risk of misinformation has entered our rankings at number three. Along with the risk of uninsurability, which has entered our rankings at number seven, it has outranked climate transition risk, which has fallen from tenth to eleventh place.

The heightened risk stemming from AI and social networks forms part of the broader digital risk landscape (cyber and algorithmic risks), which has now topped the rankings for several survey cycles. And this risk could be increased by the rollback of regulations governing AI under pressure from tech giants.

With disbelief comes mistrust and then anxiety

Among the populations vulnerable to disinformation are young people, whose feeling of mistrust, particularly with regard to institutions, is confirmed. They are confronted with it via social networks where mistrust and the search for validation contribute to the degradation of self-esteem, anxiety and depression. In addition, the crises of recent years have perpetuated a climate of constant doubt. 

The deterioration of mental health (10th in the ranking) is nowadays a widely recognized reality. Find our latest Foresight Notebook on Youth for more details about this risk in young people. According to the World Health Organization, suicide is the third leading cause of death for populations between 15 and 29 years old. 

To learn more about the 2026 emerging risks, download our detailed study
It focuses on the following 3 risks:

You will find out about our definition of these risks and a five- to ten-year forward-looking analysis of their evolution and impacts on society and CNP Assurances.
Lastly, we specify the main measures put in place by our Group to anticipate and limit the impacts of these risks.